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Escape from Illinois: Demographics & Deficits

Escape from Illinois: Demographics & Deficits

An important story from Illinois is now making national headlines. The state is broke and can’t service its debt or fully fund a variety of other basic services. There’s a budget impasse between the Republican Governor and Democrat legislators that prompted Moody’s and S&P to downgrade them to essentially junk bond status. It’s important to keep in mind this infighting is not to restore fiscal sobriety. It’s to pass a budget that enables the state to continue servicing its debt so that it can borrow more money. No long term solution that achieves sustainability can arise from the current miasma. Of course, they’ll eventually reach a deal, politicians always do. However, it will only guarantee even worse problems down the road. This downgrade is unprecedented for a US state, and a harbinger of things to come all across this once great land of ours. At least a 3rd of all states are facing similar crisis to Illinois at some point in the near future.

Sure, we can talk about Red vs Blue and fiscal prudence, etc. If we did this, this would be just another article in the National Review that avoids glaring realities. The issue underlying all of this is demographic. Over the long term, a society can only sustain a level of prosperity made possible by its population. Sooner or later, the level of economic prosperity in an area experiencing population transfers will begin to shift from its current level until it reaches parity with the quality of its new population. This is the principle we’re witnessing assert itself across the US. One of the primary drivers of deficit spending is our need to provide 1st World services to 3rd World people who can’t pay. Sure, it’s possible for a large 1st World population to sustainably subsidize a small 3rd World population. That’s not the demographic situation in Weimerica. Our leaders have opted to bury their heads in the sands of debt, but that’s all coming to an end.

It’s illuminating to note that Chicago preceded its state in reaching this problem. No complicated formulas to compute here. A city with a massive population of violent, indolent POCs will be a fiscal wreck regardless of how many SWPLS decide live there. The color of their skin doesn’t match the color of their ink on a government balance sheet. It’s not a coincidence that the city’s heyday occurred in their total absence, and its decline has mirrored their increase in the portion of the population. We’ve watched similar situations play out in smaller municipalities across the country. Besides Chicago being our third largest city, there’s nothing really unique about this particular story.

Glaring evidence indicates that the SWPLS recognize this problem. In economics there’s a concept known as “Revealed Preference Theory.” In short, it means what people are thinking is demonstrated by what they do, not say. While you’re going to find any SWPLS declaring: “I don’t want to live in a violent, dysfunctional shithole infested by nig/spic gang members”, that’s pretty much what they’re thinking. Last year alone, a net 80,000 people fled that doomed city. A preference revealed, indeed.

It would appear that they’re not just leaving for more pleasant suburbs outside the city. They’re getting the fuck gone. Last year, the state of Illinois lost 114,000 residents. Seven other states (including California, obviously) are also suffering from this problem. It’s easy to surmise who is leaving, staying, and arriving. Middle class whites are fleeing the burdensome taxation, dangerous denizens, and general dysfunction. It’s not easy to move from a place where you’ve become established. They’re undertaking a substantial effort in order to reach a greener pasture. It’s even easier to guess who is staying. Dindus. If you’re reading this site you don’t need another explanation of their shortcomings.

Who is coming? Although roughly 114,000 people left, the population only declined by about 37,000. Quite a few brown people arrived last year. Merely from a financial standpoint, that’s rather ominous. Sure, you can pay them less. To their employer, they make financial sense. However to the taxpayer, they constitute an enormous and growing burden. SNAP benefits, Section 8 vouchers, and education don’t pay for themselves. Regrettably, the unsustainability of subsidizing millions of poor brown people is obscured by colossal debts taken on by every level of government. If the cost started coming directly out of white wallets, then the cattle cars would start rolling immediately.

Thus, a state like Illinois finds itself caught up in a lethal population transfer. Each year, productive middle class whites flee, depriving the state of revenue. Meanwhile, brown people arrive who must then be subsidized. It’s impossible for this not to end in disaster, but public discussion of the demographic element to state and local collapse is verboten. The MSM will only discuss this malaise in a short term fiscal context, as if the demographic drivers of the crisis are completely nonexistent.

There are two main tactics taken by politicians in a place like Illinois. The first has been to ignore demography (except to celebrate it) and rack up debt that it can’t pay back in order to keep a sinking ship limping along. This is critical to getting re-elected in the short term. The second is to engage in deceptive accounting practices, mainly in the area of pensions. In this regard, deceit often takes the form projected investment returns much higher than reality would justify. This enables politicians to under fund the pensions, thus providing the illusion of a balanced budget. The viability of many public pension plans in this country is based on this sort of insane accounting projection: a rate of return that is generally at least 5X higher than most plans actually achieve. For example, in Illinois it was nearly 8x higher than reality in some years. This fraud makes for enormous, crippling shortfalls as Illinoisans are beginning to experience.

Politicians are high time preference creatures. They’ve consistently chosen expediency over difficult political decisions. They have no qualms about creating time bombs in order to make it through an election cycle. For a while they successfully masked the dual time bombs of underfunded liabilities and crippling debt from the general public. But those bombs eventually will detonate. Illinois provides a terrific illustration.

It won’t be long before many of these vibrant blue states will look to the federal government for authorization to declare bankruptcy. A Republican House of Representatives will be unlikely to bail them out. It seems that asking for the ability to declare bankruptcy will be their sole option, regardless of how angry the bond holders get. This could be beneficial in exposing fault lines because it will cause intense friction mainly between white boomers, who actually worked for their pensions, and POCs dependent on handouts.

The progressive mind cannot be swayed through the observation of violence. It’s more likely that hitting them in the wallet will correct their thinking. The market chaos created by a cascade of these failures should also be highly disruptive to the current order. Those are 2 big reasons to feel hopeful about these impending disasters.

Think of our country as a flimsy tower with fifty floors, and each state as one of these floors. We focus on the national debt, because it’s a big scary bomb on the roof that could detonate at a tiny interest rate. It distracts people from the fact that most of the floors are rigged with their own smaller explosives. It’s all gonna blow. It won’t be pleasant but it’s the only path I can see to a restoration of sanity.

  • ObiWanKenobi

    “A Republican House of Representatives will be unlikely to bail them out.”
    Not so fast… This is not a group of strong willed men and women. This is almost exclusively a group of weaklings suffering from a desire to be liked and thought of favorably by the masses. Basically a bunch of George W Bush clones. They will try to mitigate the inevitable and pretend it’s working for as long as they can.

    • guard4her

      Yup, they are all politicians.

  • Othmar Regin

    “But those bombs eventually will detonate.” BOOM! Hahahah! Let it rip! the sooner the better. As somebody once said “The worse it gets the better it gets”, let them have a taste of their own medicine.

  • digriff

    Speaking of bombs…..might be time to blow the bridges over the Mississippi before all those didndu’s come running to Missouri. We have enough already thanks.

  • silverscotsman

    Ol’d Abe spins in his grave